Many sports fan often watch ESPN (the central sports network), and check out the top teams of a sport competing against one another. The most popular are often football, basketball, and baseball. Watching sports is an activity almost all of us enjoy, yet at times dream of actually playing competitively live on television in front of millions of viewers and fans across the nation. The chances that each one of us can make such a dream a reality is almost next to none. Let's review in terms of statistics the actual probability of making it into the world of elite athleticism.
According to an article penned by Tony Manfred from the chronicle Business Insider, the following phrase states the harsh reality: "Even if your kid is good at sports in high school, gets a scholarship, and excels in college, there's almost no way they are going to go pro" [1]. The statement is accurately proven as the data compiled from the NCAA reveals in six different sport areas. The table below summarizes the information brought by the article and gives a rough idea of what it actually means to be a professional athlete competing at the elite level.
Table for percentage of high school and college players that qualify as a pro [1].
Sport
|
Baseball
|
Football
|
Men’s
Ice Hockey
|
Men’s
Basketball
|
Men’s
Soccer
|
Women’s
Basketball
|
Number
of High School Players
|
471,025
|
1,108,441
|
36,912
|
545,844
|
398,351
|
438,933
|
Number
of College Players
|
31,264
|
67,887
|
3,944
|
17,500
|
22,573
|
15,708
|
Percent
of High School students who play Professionally
|
0.6%
|
0.08%
|
0.1%
|
0.03%
|
0.04%
|
0.03%
|
Percent
of College students who play Professionally
|
11.6%
|
1.7%
|
1.3%
|
1.2%
|
1.0%
|
0.9%
|
Number
of Draftees by Professional Leagues
|
806
|
255
|
11
|
48
|
49
|
32
|
In Men's basketball, the numbers are even lower. Of the half million high school players, no more than 17,500 will play at a college level (3.206%). Slightly more than a few hundred college basketball players perform at a pro level (1.2%). In the end, the NBA (National Basketball Association) on average in any given season has fewer than 50 draftees selected which is around 0.2743% (~1 in 365). While someone may have exceled in basketball during their secondary years, it barely meant that they will gain entry into the NBA league. Professional leagues are looking for the best amongst the best and so getting drafted is a significant achievement an athlete can hope for.
Of the sports listed in the table, the one that is the least competitive of all is baseball. With nearly half a million high school players, only around 30,000 will qualify to compete in college (~6-7 percent or 3 out of 50). Of those 30,000 players, 11.6% of them perform at a professional level (slightly more than 3500 players). Finally the Major Leagues are able to draft slightly more than 800 college players (~2.58% or 1 in 40). Baseball may be the easiest amongst the several other sports to obtain an enlistment in the professional field, but it is still extremely difficult to be even considered by the Major Leagues.
You can begin to get a sense of where I'm heading with all these statistics. While some of us at one point in our lives had a triumphant moment of exceling in an athletic field, it hardly translated into the possibility of starting a path towards the ultimate level of sportsmanship. We can see so many outstanding and talented college athletes that have worked tremendously hard with long hours put into intense routine practice only to miss the cut to the top level of the professional leagues in the end. Succeeding in the drafting process would mean that one college sportsman has to prove him or herself to be the best amongst all other collegiate players. Achieving such a feat is by no means an incredibly arduous goal. Unless you have genuine athletic ability, natural talent, are physically gifted, and have a tireless passion for sports, no matter how hard you try for how long, you can never become a professional athlete in any sport.
So in conclusion, I'm not trying to shatter the hopes, dreams and aspirations of young amateur athletes who participate in sports competitively in high school or college as to one day they would like to land a multi-million dollar career as a top-notch sportsman on a par amongst the best of the best. I'm just penning down this journal to give a general sense of what the reality is and exactly how unimaginably competitive and grueling the athletic world is especially at the highest level of performance. Rather than setting the bar to unrealistic and absurd levels of expectations, it is much better to realize what realistically we're capable of potentially achieving in our lives.
Mathematically speaking, the odds of anyone becoming a professional athlete are according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics around 24,550 to 1 (0.00407%) [2]. Becoming one almost never depends upon one single factor but rather requires a highly improbable combination of several factors that are sometimes beyond individual control. Whether or not you have what it takes is usually indicated either early on in life or during adolescence. In order to really increase the chances of entering the competitive world of professional athletics one must start at an early age, work endlessly for countless hours, and must really desire the dream in order to make it a reality.
References:
[1] Manfred, Tony. "Here Are The Odds That Your Kid Becomes A Professional Athlete (Hint: They're Small)." Business Insider. N.p., 10. Feb. 2012. Web. 09 June 2013
[2] "11 Hardest Jobs to Get in America." 15,436 College Reviews from Real Students. N.p., 18 Nov. 2009. Web. 09 June 2013.